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|"Twelve Five" power equipment industry business opportunities|
Abstract: Since the seventh session of the Fifth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee announced on the "second Five Year Plan" proposal, the parties on the "second Five-Year" period of China's energy, the contours of the electric power industry plans to become more clear. Analysts expect the "second five" smart grid during the period, special high pressure and new energy power equipment will be the development of the industry pulling three carriages.
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Since the seventh session of the Fifth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee announced on the "second Five Year Plan" proposal, the parties on the "second Five-Year" period of China's energy, the contours of the electric power industry plans to become more clear. Analysts expect the "second five" smart grid during the period, special high pressure and new energy power equipment will be the development of the industry pulling three carriages.
"'Twelve Five' period, National Grid will add 110 (66) kV and above lines 337,000 km, transformer / converter kVA capacity of 1.92 billion to meet the additional 380 million kilowatts installed capacity of the access and sent, cross conveyor 250 million kilowatts of electricity and 1.15 trillion kwh of electricity requirements. "State Grid Corporation of India deputy general manager of Shu Biao said recently.
Power grid, distribution network construction intensified
Recently, the CEC chairman of the Fifth Council at its second meeting, Liu Zhenya, general manager of the national grid, said, "Twelve Five" will be our key to change the way electric power development period. The reason to make such a decision, based on the following three conditions.
First, a new round of world energy revolution, the development of China's energy structure and power mode of development has brought a major impact, energy, especially clean energy, China has entered a new phase of accelerated development and construction, special high pressure and strong and smart grid also entered Building a new period of development and innovation.
Second, the seventh session of the Fifth Plenary Session request, in the "second five year" period to ensure the transformation of economic development to achieve substantive progress, the inevitable development of the power means new demands, and have an important role in promoting.
Third is the "second five" scientific and technological innovation during the power will be a major breakthrough, high-capacity thermal power units with high parameters of low loss, high efficiency and clean coal-fired power generation, third generation nuclear power engineering and equipment manufacturing, renewable energy generation, high voltage and smart grid comprehensive development of such technology will be on the way to change power development plays a huge role in promoting. For power companies, will also face important strategic opportunity.
National Grid Company "second Five Year Plan" on the other hand seems to fit this view. Information, the State Grid Corporation in the "second Five-Year" period of power grid construction idea is to transform the mode of development, through great efforts to build power transmission lines to increase the proportion of, and strive to raise the proportion of 2020 more than 20% transmission.
Moreover, National Grid will also focus on the development of the next 5 years, a large grid and the current weak point - distribution network. However, some analysts have pointed out that as China's electric power construction has always pursued the "re-issued, light for, regardless of use" policy, power distribution capabilities lag for years, in order by virtue of "second five year" period has a complete solution to this problem great difficulty. But the National Grid, "second five" to strengthen the construction of the distribution side, the first side benefit is undoubtedly the distribution of electrical equipment manufacturers.
In addition, the national grid, "Twelfth Five-Year" period of great development of the core problem is that changes in network mode of development. By strengthening the power transmission line construction to improve the way that the total proportion of energy delivery. At present, China mainly depends on the energy transport rail and road, of which 50% of rail traffic is in coal, coal power transmission was significantly unbalanced. Data show that in 2006, "Three West" area of ??up to 20:1 ratio of coal and power transmission, transmission, less than 5%.
Shu Yinbiao said it expects that by 2020, both through the construction of coal power transmission integrated transport system so that the "Three West" region to achieve a 4:1 ratio of coal power transmission.
At the same time, "second five" special high-voltage power grid in China during an important stage of development, by 2015 the "three China" region (north, east, central) to form a "three vertical and three horizontal part of network" UHV network, the National will build 11 high voltage DC transmission line back. UHV total investment will reach 4,000 billion yuan, of which investment in equipment will reach 2500 billion yuan.
Everbright Securities [14.980.00%] of electrical equipment and new energy industry analyst Wang Haisheng expected in the "second Five-Year" period of high-end network (UHV ultra high pressure) of the investment will reach 750 billion yuan, the national power grid investment will reach 2.5 trillion yuan, representing the "Eleventh Five-Year" period of significant growth, and the incremental part of the total construction investment from the UHV, ultra high voltage because of the need to provide for the support, and the afterburner for the Northwest grid set up, investment is not than the "during" reduced network construction around the end, the next 5 years electrical equipment industry is facing the greatest development opportunities.
Upgrading rural power technology standards Qiangzai
Previously, the National Energy Board disclosed rural power grids will invest 12.0 billion in 2010 capital. Analysts said that this part of the capital ratio will be assigned according to the two power grids, and part of the local power grid, together with the main power grid investment and bank lending its own funds, will drive a total of about 600 billion annual capital investment, national grid power grid Therefore, the total investment expansion.
The next 5 years, National Grid, or will continue to improve the rural power grid construction standards, in particular, to improve resilience. Shu Yinbiao in an interview that "second Five-Year" period, National Grid will implement five projects, namely: rural power upgrading project, the new rural electrification upgrades, rural power management innovation and engineering, rural power of the Career Works, for construction of electric service brand. Focus on addressing the current rapid growth of rural users of electricity, power quality, and reliability of the unsatisfactory status quo.
It is understood that National Grid has developed a "rural network upgrading project management approach" as well as technical guidelines, on the rural power grid construction equipment technical standards put forward specific demands.
Industry sources, on the one hand, in addition to new construction tasks, there are many existing rural power network-related equipment needs replacement, which means that rural power market will be required for substantial expansion of electrical equipment; the other hand, the standard also improved significantly, strong technology equipment companies are expected to more stable order.
Smart Grid: the battle for secondary equipment market
ANCIENT CEC Secretary-General, said in an interview, the current building will be a smart electricity grid, "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" an important part. Planning mentioned in the smart grid concept is a broad sense of the power system intelligent, but not limited to the power of intelligent field.
Needless to say, smart grid attractive enough piece of cake, at present, many enterprises and research institutions are actively benchmarking to international standards, efforts to capture the core of smart grid technologies, such as the development of flexible DC technology and special high-voltage DC transmission technology, high-capacity storage technology , new energy and network control technology.
According to media previously disclosed, the next 10 years, smart grid investment is expected to average about 3,000 yuan. In the industry experts, the national grid will pull ten times the invested funds as well as follow-up times. The next 10 years, a smart grid and driven by the ambitious industrial chain is started slowly.
Analysts said that from the "second five" national power grid planning proposals and tender conditions, the current focus of power grid construction is still concentrated in high voltage and smart grid development: ultra-high voltage transmission grid in 2012 and 2015 is expected to usher in the peak construction ; smart grid construction, including power generation, transmission, substation, distribution, electricity, scheduling, expected to usher in the next 5 years the peak construction investment, will bring more than 620 billion yuan in power equipment needs.
Construction of a smart grid will increase asset utilization of equipment, power equipment, particularly the traditional primary equipment market capacity and long-term will be negatively affected. Analysts forecast the company in the gold, the traditional primary equipment market will shrink accordingly, the annual compound growth rate of only 3%.
Corresponding, the secondary equipment market becomes more important. The end of September 2010, the National Grid Pilot Project on Smart Substation secondary equipment required for the first tender. National Grid also said investment in the field and structure of the grid will be a fine, smart grid secondary equipment will increase the proportion of investment. CICC expects the average annual compound growth rate of secondary equipment needs will reach 20%, the proportion of total investment in network equipment from the current 5% to the next 10 years, 11% of the total.
In this process, digital substation will rapidly promote substantial growth in demand for electronic transformers: the development of digital substation is to build a strong unity of an important part of the Smart Grid, in "Twelfth Five-Year" period, with the digital substation technology matures, digital substation construction and renovation work will be in full swing. Electronic transformer substation as a digital infrastructure in the process level, will gradually replace the traditional transformer. Therefore, electronic transformer secondary equipment market will be one of the key enterprises for.
New energy is expected to continue to lead the "second five"
New energy development is the "second Five Year Plan" another bright spot. Recently, the National Energy Authority Development Planning Division, said Jiang Bing, in accordance with the "five-second" energy planning objectives, "second five" in China will accelerate hydropower, nuclear power, and actively make an orderly wind power, solar energy , biomass and other renewable energy conversion and utilization. By 2015, China's natural gas share of total primary energy will increase by 4.4%, hydropower and nuclear power accounted for the proportion of primary energy will increase by 1.5%, wind, solar, biomass and other new energy sources will account for the proportion of primary energy increased by 1.8%. By then, China's non-fossil energy share of total primary energy consumption is expected to reach more than 11%.
In addition, our government, "Twelfth Five" will invest 4 trillion yuan during the key support for space technology, new energy, new materials, information technology, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, energy-saving technologies and environmental technology industries 9 marks with the "five-second" period, the development of new energy industries will gain more fiscal and financial policies.
Specific to nuclear power development, the "five-second" new nuclear power during the planning of the "long-term nuclear power development plan (2005 ~ 2020)" had a substantial adjustment. According to the plan, by 2015, nuclear power installed capacity will reach 39 million kilowatts; to 2020, plans to increase nuclear power capacity to 86 million kilowatts, accounting for 5% of the total installed capacity by then about 40 million kilowatts under construction.
Galaxy Securities believes that nuclear power has a return of stability, efficiency and good features, is feasible capacity of coal resources have alternative energy. Based on these characteristics, the national attitude in the development of nuclear power has changed from "positive development" changed to "as development." Logic from the investment point of view, nuclear power, solar power, wind power for horizontal comparison, the largest investment in nuclear power industry, the industrial chain to benefit the most obvious.
At the same time, compared to twenty years until 2008 before the construction of 11 nuclear power plants, nuclear power plant construction in China has entered a cycle of accelerated growth after 2010 will mark the climax of nuclear power, nuclear power equipment manufacturer to bring domestic rare development opportunities.
In this context, nuclear power equipment will greatly enhance the localization rate, nuclear power primary equipment manufacturers to share large investment, and domestic production of key components of the process of sub-sub-sectors will show explosive growth market.
Some analysts have pointed out that nuclear power units in accordance with investment of 13,000 yuan / kW basis, nuclear power between 2011 and 2015, investment is expected to reach 5000 billion between 2011 and 2020, investment in nuclear power is expected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan. The composition of investment from the point of view of nuclear power, investment in equipment for 55% of total investment, equipment manufacturers are expected to share the feast.
At the same time, China's hydropower development or stagnation had swept away the haze, entered a rapid growth phase. "China's hydropower 'second five' plan initially set to add 63 million kilowatts in 2015 conventional hydropower installed capacity, add 12 million kilowatts of installed capacity of pumped storage. 2015, China's conventional hydropower installed capacity in 2010 will 207 million kilowatts upgrade to 2.7 million kilowatts, thousands of pumped storage power installed capacity from 1800 to rise to 30 million kilowatts Wati. "China Hydropower Engineering Consulting Group Corporation Wei Xiaowan Planning Agency said in an interview.
Hydropower "Twelve Five" plan is also more prominent focus on hydropower development ideas. For pumped storage is concerned, 2020 will reach 80 million to 110 million kilowatts, which means in the next decade, pumped storage capacity will increase 50 million to 7000 million kilowatts. To a large extent the construction of pumped storage to meet wind, solar and other clean energy power generation peaking needs, according to estimates, by 2020, construction scale pumped-storage power consumption corresponding to nano-scale wind will reach 120 million ~ 200 million kilowatts .
Analysts said that with the accelerated development of hydropower, water needed for generators, turbine pumps, valves, opening and closing equipment market capacity will be increased dramatically.
But it is worth attention is that the new energy industry, but is always accompanied by rapid development of the worries behind. Surplus of wind power had the repercussions, the National Development and Reform Commission deputy director of the National Energy Secretary Zhang called on nuclear power development too fast alert caused by worry.
It is reported that the State Council has approved 34 nuclear power units, installed capacity of 36.92 million kilowatts, which has started the construction of 25 units, installed capacity of 27.73 million kilowatts. "We wait for them to be included in the planning of projects in 2020 are to start next year, this momentum is now very different places, it is not possible, nor is it included in that planning should start on." Zhang stressed.
Big British Securities researcher Lu Xiaobing, the current Power Equipment Group, China's large, but hundred. However, the overall electrical equipment manufacturing company is 200 times the former, namely, more than 2,000 associated with the nuclear power equipment business not less than 400,000.
The current situation in many regions and enterprises, the development of nuclear power are active in Happy Valley Circle field, to seize the nuclear power equipment, too fast too early to carry out preparatory work and other issues are more prominent. Experts point out that this situation is not changing in time, will greatly interfere with the overall national plan on the deployment of nuclear power and give the healthy development of nuclear power to stay hidden.
In addition, the over-reliance on overseas markets, industry lack of core competence, capacity for independent innovation is weak, repeat behind the introduction of foreign technology, equipment, lack of absorption capacity and other issues has been accompanied by the development of new energy industries. In this regard, analysts pointed out that in the "second Five-Year" period, in the new energy development, the Government should strengthen macro guidance and control, scientific development objectives and strategies to determine their status and role of the scale for new energy technologies and scientific planning, from the resource, cost, market, environment and stage of development, and many were evaluated.
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