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|U.S. media said that China's manufacturing expansion, but the inflation situation is grim|
Abstract: China in November manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) hit a 7-month high, indicating that the economic growth momentum. But one of the purchase price index rose rapidly, indicating that inflation situation is grim, the market expectations of monetary tightening is heating up again.
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Xinhua News Agency, Beijing December 3 Information Xinhua VOA Chinese Online published December 2, entitled "China's manufacturing expanded the inflation situation is grim," the article, excerpts are as follows:
China's November manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) hit a 7-month high, indicating that the economic growth momentum. But one of the purchase price index rose rapidly, indicating that inflation situation is grim, the market expectations of monetary tightening is heating up again.
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released December 1 data, November's PMI was 55.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from last month, this is the fourth consecutive month the index rebounded, hitting the highest since April of this year level. Experts believe that the development trend of the manufacturing sector PMI measure of strong growth, indicating that the momentum of China's sustained economic expansion, not reduction.
But economists and industry insiders are more concerned about the classification of PMI composition. Experts noted that, to promote the PMI continues to rise in the purchasing price index of the largest increases came from the strong. Data show a substantial rise in raw material prices, driven by the rapid rise in the purchase price index, rose 3.6 percentage points to 73.5%.
Zhao Beijing University of Technology economics professor, said the strong rise in response to the purchase price index of agricultural and industrial raw material prices will affect prices, while the rise in producer prices will be transmitted to the consumer price index, show that the inflation situation is not optimistic. He said: "The purchase index shows prices of upstream products rose faster in the current period of time, this will constitute a pressure on the company, could erode its profit, costs rise. This business is a big problem."
Data show that the current part of the crops and the rapid rise in prices of agricultural products, cotton yarn and other raw materials markets in short supply, market prices soared, rising prices of natural rubber, coal, diesel, steel, copper and aluminum and other nonferrous metals prices trend apparent. The resulting increase in business costs, production and operating pressure is more heavy.
Experts generally believe that the current inflation is characterized by "imported inflation", and the introduction of quantitative easing Federal Reserve monetary policy. Professor Zhao Xiao said that the current prices of agricultural products and raw materials continued to rise on the proof of this. He said: "From the beginning of this year's inflation and the rise in agricultural prices have more relationships, especially in the August time. But in the October price higher, along with the autumn harvest is not going down. A new the main factor is imported inflation. imported inflation has increased the pressure on China's current inflation, as prices rose a very important factor. "
November PMI indicates that the economy will continue to rise further warming, and the purchase price index shows a strong future inflation situation is grim. The indications are that the Government may introduce a strong tightening macro-control. Qu Hongbin, chief economist for Greater China, HSBC is expected in the coming months the central bank will again raise the benchmark interest rate to further tighten monetary policy to cope with inflation.
China Center for Economic Research of Peking University, Professor Huo Deming, said he feared the government to take strong after the tightening of monetary policy may have negative effects. He said if the government continues to raise interest rates or raising the reserve ratio, the inflation pressure may be down, but on the other hand, certain sectors of society will be greatly squeezed, such as banking and finance sector. ,2006-2008, he pointed out that the contraction of monetary policy has resulted in losses for banks and securities sector, there have been sharp fluctuations in the stock market.
Zhao also said that while the current and future inflation may be the focus of the Government for some time, but it is not only China's economic development issues, macro-control not the other. He said: "China also has the downward trend, we see the first quarter of this year, an increase of 11.9%, 10.3% in the second quarter, third quarter 9.6%, a gradual decline in overall economic trend. In addition, the U.S. economy is not out of trouble. These factors also need to pay attention to the decision-making authority. "Zhao said that China and the world economy to some degree of uncertainty will affect the government to increase efforts to tighten the determination of macro-control departments, inflation control bound hands and feet, making China new round of inflation control more difficult.
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